Interview: GII Listing Is Chosen For The 2018 MA+DS Modern Home Tour

Interview: GII Listing Is Chosen For The 2018 MA+DS Modern Home Tour

We are excited to announce that one of our listings, La Pintura Moderna, was chosen for the 2018 San Diego Modern Architecture + Design Society Home Tour! This prestigious distinction was handed out to only 9 homes in San Diego County.

The Modern Home Tour series gives the residents of San Diego and surrounding SoCal communities a rare chance to see a selection of amazing home designs and projects completed by local architects, designers, and builders.

The tour will take place this Saturday, October 13th, 2018, from 11:00AM-5:00PM. This event is on-sale now and tickets are available at the button below. 

We sat down with the talented team behind this gorgeous property to better understand their inspiration, the process, and much more. We hope you enjoy this interview and we’ll see you this Saturday at La Pintura Moderna!

 

The Team 

Kai Kenner

Architecture, Project Management

Leigh-Ann Muramoto

Design

Jon Walsh

Construction

Can you introduce the team that designed and built La Pintura Moderna?

Kai: The primary design and management team were Leigh-Ann Muramoto, Jon Walsh, and Kai Kenner. Leigh-Ann was responsible for the design – how the home feels up close and personal. Jon was responsible for getting it built – we call him Mister GSD. I was responsible for the architecture, project management, and for the overall vision of the home and keeping the train on the tracks.

Q: La Pintura Moderna is stunning inside and out. The first thing that strikes me as you walk up to the house is how breathtaking it is. Each design element creates a perfect sense of harmony. Can you tell our readers about the inspiration behind the design and architecture?

 Jon: Thank you. After spending time at the site we decided to make the main living space an open floor plan with the idea of leading the viewer through the home towards the canyon. We wanted to emphasize clean lines, natural materials, and a proper use of light. Design elements grew as we worked with the natural characteristics of the site, such as the terraced front yard which follows the natural slope of the lot.

Kai: Our vision for the property was a timeless and serene modern retreat.  We designed the home around themes that people always appreciate regardless of the trends of the time.  So the architecture evolved around the quiet canyon, high ceilings, open spaces, indoor/outdoor living, and floor-to-ceiling glass walls.  We downplayed contemporary elements such as curves and pop-outs in favor of clean, modern lines. The main living areas such as the kitchen, great room, and master bedroom are oriented towards the canyon so those important areas of the home always have a view of natural beauty.

Leigh-Ann: The inspiration for the home sprang naturally from the surrounding treetops and the canyon. We had many dinners together at the site, visualizing the space and discussing how to best capture the surroundings. We chose a subdued color palette that would complement the natural beauty of the site. San Diego is an ideal locale to play with indoor-outdoor concepts. We used floor-to-ceiling glass walls to blur the line between indoor and outdoor spaces.  We also extended the roof over the outdoor deck creating an additional 800 square feet of living space that the owners can enjoy in any weather.

Q: It’s a prestigious distinction to be chosen for the MA+DS Modern Hour Tour, as only a few homes make the cut; what does that mean to you?

Jon: It’s an honor and means a lot given both the time and effort we spent on the home, and also due to how much we enjoy modern design.  To be recognized for our work is very rewarding and we’re also happy that more people are able to see the home.

Leigh-Ann: It’s also a great opportunity to learn and to get feedback from the modern design community. And we’re grateful to MA + DS for fostering an appreciation for modern architecture in home design.

Q: La Pintura Moderna is truly a special home. What are your favorite areas or features of the home and why?

Leigh-Ann: My favorite area is the front entry, it sets the tone for the rest of the home. As you walk towards the 9 foot tall glass pivot door, there is a flowing water feature to the left. To the right is a massive structural shear wall that anchors the home and balances the transparency of the glass walls. We clad this wall in grey stacked slate to give it a solid, grounded feel. We continued this theme of stacked slate with the other structural walls in the home. The wood cladding under the eaves ties in with the warm, wood floors. We repeated these elements throughout the home to create a cohesive, calming feel. The overall effect is a fluid but grounded experience.

Another feature that adds a lot of dimension to the house is the thoughtful use of skylights and clerestory windows. They ensure every area of the house is lit with plenty of natural light.

Jon: I like the sightlines through the entry and the sensation that you’re being pulled out to the canyon-facing deck and sitting up in the trees.

Kai: My favorite design elements are the views of the surrounding nature, floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plan, and the covered indoor-outdoor deck.  As Jon touched upon, I love being surrounded by the treetops and sitting on the deck, looking out across the canyon. I also love the two-person walk-in shower!  I always try to fit a huge shower into a master bathroom plan. Leigh-Ann’s design uses a light colored tile on the short ends of the shower to ensure the shower feels light and bright, while the darker tile on the floor and longwall ties in with the rest of the bathroom.  And Jon did a great job designing the linear trench drain – it’s entirely functional but beautifully elegant because it blends in so well with the surrounding tile.

 

Q: The before and after photos are unrecognizable. How did you know La Pintura was the right house for your project? What were the main features that caught your attention?

Leigh-Ann: A few years ago we designed and built a house on a site which was similar to La Pintura. We learned so much from that project and we were excited to apply our learnings to a new project. Like La Pintura, the house was on a canyon lot with a reverse floor plan where you enter at street level and the secondary rooms are below. The reverse floor plan takes full advantage of the canyon views and lets in the most light to the main living areas.

Q: What was the biggest challenge you faced during the entire process?

Jon: The sloping site was difficult to work with and it slowed the construction process.  But designing with the slope gives us an opportunity to create interest, so it balances out in the end.

Kai:  We also had three opinionated, creative people working on an inspirational project.  We knew from experience that we would need clear principles to guide our decisions as a team.  Fortunately, the three of us have a great working relationship and a good vibe with each other, so all the decisions and work effort flowed easily.

Q: Are you planning or already working on your next project?

Kai: We’re in the design and planning stages on a few multi-family projects located in Mission Hills and North Park.  These are new construction projects with modern designs. We chose the sites because they’re in great neighborhoods with quiet, walkable streets.  We aren’t working on any single-family homes at the moment. La Pintura Moderna was a unique project, so we’re always on the lookout for similar projects where we can create something special and memorable.  We live in beautiful, temperate, Southern California. We’re grateful whenever we can express a connection to the natural surroundings through our creative work.

Ready To See La Pintura Modern In Person?

 

La Pintura Moderna is truly a jaw-dropping property that must be seen in person to admire its beauty. If you’d like the chance to see it, make sure you attend the 2018 MA+DS Modern Home Tour this Saturday, October 13th, from 11:00AM-5:00PM. 

Be sure to purchase your tickets at the button below! If you’d like to get in touch with Stone Lion Properties, click here to learn more!

To learn more about La Pintura Moderna, please contact Gabhart Investments, at (858) 356-5973.

Gabhart Investments, Inc – 2018 All Rights Reserved

San Diego Rent Control and Vacation Rental Update Lunch & Learn

San Diego Rent Control and Vacation Rental Update Lunch & Learn

San Diego Rent Control and Vacation Rental Update Lunch & Learn

San Diego Rent control and restrictions on short-term vacation rentals could have devastating impacts on the San Diego real estate market and economy. Are you an investor, real estate professional, landlord or even a resident that is interested in discovering how this could impact you? It’s time to educate yourself and let your voice be heard. 

In this interactive and informative 60-minute class, Curtis Gabhart and an expert panel of speakers will present an in-depth overview of both San Diego rent control and restrictions on short-term vacation rentals.

Topics include

  • San Diego Rent Control
  • National City Rent Control
  • Financial modeling displaying how rent control could impact property value & NOI
  • Short-term vacation rentals impact on the real estate market

San Diego Rent Control

Guest Speaker Bio’s

Molly Kirkland: Molly has been serving the San Diego region in the governmental affairs field for well over a decade. For nearly 7 years, she has served as the Director of Public Affairs for the San Diego County Apartment Association (SDCAA).  Prior to working with SDCAA, Molly worked in Government Affairs and Communications for the San Diego Association of REALTORS.

Richard A. Snyder, CPM: a Real Estate Professional for over 30 Years, is the President and Owner/Broker of R.A. Snyder Properties, Inc., located in San Diego California, where he is a recognized leader in the Real Estate Industry. Rick is a Past President of San Diego County Apartment Association and he continues to lead as Co-Chair of the local effort to defeat Rent Control in National City and the local No on 10 Statewide campaign to protect Costa-Hawkins.

Christine La Marca: is a San Diego native with over 20 years of residential property management experience.  She is responsible for the day-to-day management of her family’s real estate portfolio. She is the Immediate Past President of the San Diego County Apartment Association, and she is currently still actively serving the Association as Co-Chair of the local No on 10 Statewide campaign to protect Costa-Hawkins and the local efforts to defeat Rent Control in National City.

Check out Curtis’s San Diego rent control blog post to catch yourself up to speed before you attend.

Click Here to Check it Out

Date

Tuesday, September 18, 2018

12:00-1:00PM

Location

Keller Williams Carmel Valley

12780 High Bluff Rd Ste 130

San Diego, CA 92130

We would be thrilled if you could join us for this special event. Lunch will be provided to those who RSVP in advance. Space is limited so please register as early as possible. Additional details are listed below.  To RSVP, follow the ticket prompt below confirming you will be in attendance or recommend someone else from your office if you are unable to attend. Thanks very much!  We hope to see you there!

 

The presentation will be hosted by Curtis Gabhart, CCIM 

Curtis Gabhart has been a successful Real Estate professional for more than a decade. He has a Certified Commercial Investment Member (CCIM) designation from the CCIM Institute. He is a Director at Keller Williams Commercial Brokerage and President of Gabhart Investments, Inc, a privately held real estate investment firm that manages a syndication of private investors, specializing in acquiring and renovating single and multi-family properties. He also serves on the Commercial Advisory Board at the University of San Diego Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate and he teaches commercial real estate courses for the California Association of REALTORS® and San Diego Association of REALTORS®. He has been recognized by members of Congress, California State Senators, the City of San Diego, and had a day named after him in the County of San Diego for his community service and dedication to the community. He was awarded as the Dealmaker of the Year for 2015 in Retail and Multi-Family category.

24 Things You Need to Know About National City Rent Control

24 Things You Need to Know About National City Rent Control

National City Rent Control

Rent Control may be coming to San Diego County sooner than you think. National City renters recently gathered 3,600 signatures to place the National City Rent Control and Community Stability Ordinance on the November 2018 ballot. The implications that this may have on property owners, renters, and our local economy could be immense. We encourage all property owners to educate themselves on this matter and understand it’s potential consequences. If you would like a full highlighted copy of the ordinance, please leave us a comment below and we’ll be happy to send you a free copy. In addition, I will be hosting an informative lunch and learn on September 18th that will be covering rent control and the recent vacation rental restrictions. Click here for more information and to RSVP.

San Diego Rent Control


24 Things You Need To Know About the Ordinance

  1. All rental properties would be subject to this measure except for single-family homes with granny flats, rooming houses, student housing, and subsidized affordable projects.
  2. All rental rates will be placed back to the date this ordinance was published (March 2018). The rent charged at that time will serve as the base rent for the unit.
  3. The base rent will be allowed to increase by the inflation rate (CPI) of up to 5%, but no more regardless of whether inflation went beyond 5%.
  4. This ordinance does not allow for the standard of vacancy decontrol, where an owner would typically raise rents to market upon a tenant moving out. This means the owner must keep the unit at the current controlled rental rate.
  5. Establishes a 5-member National City Rental Board (NCRB). This Board would have the authority to set and adjust annual rent rate for rental properties.
  6. The Board must be composed of at least 3 tenants currently renting in National City.
  7. The Board would finance its “reasonable and necessary expenses” by charging landlords annual rental housing fees. This would start at $120 per unit and is subject to increase by the Boards discretion. Most rent control boards in California charge between $240-$360 per-year per-unit.
  8. The Board would create a “base rental rate” and units would be assigned a maximum allowable rental rate that the landlord could charge a tenant. The maximum rate could be adjusted higher or lower with the Board’s discretion.
  9. Landlords wanting to increase their maximum allowable rate would have to petition the board for approval.
  10. Contains a Just Cause Provision, which significantly decreases the landlords right to require a tenant to vacate unless under specific circumstances. The landlord must file with the Board justification as to the why the tenant is being evicted.
  11. If the landlord plans to remove the unit from the market, they must notify the Board and provide a minimum of 120 days notice to tenants or 1 year if the tenant is a senior (62+) or disabled. Relocation payments will also apply.
  12. The landlord would have to provide $7,000 to the tenant or $10,000 to a senior/disabled tenant for relocation assistance. This is the 1st year established fees and would be subject to increase per Board review on a yearly basis.
  13. Any significant repairs requiring a temporary-vacation of the unit for more than 30 days are subject to relocation assistance fees.
  14. The evicted tenant possesses a “right of first refusal” and is allowed to take back the property if the owner places it back on the market. The tenant will also be entitled to pay the same rental rate they initially paid. For example, an owner decides to move back into his unit for 5 years, and then suddenly decides to place it back for rent. The owner must then offer it to the prior tenant at the last rental rate they paid.
  15. Any attempt made to recover the unit in violation of the ordinance shall render the landlord liable to the tenant for actual damages, including damages for emotional distress, in a civil action for wrongful eviction.
  16. Landlords and tenants are prohibited from making agreements that contradict any provision in the ordinance. These private agreements would be deemed void.
  17. Ratio Utility Billing (RUB) is prohibited. Rental owners may not charge for utilities unless they are individually metered.
  18. Landlords must petition the rent board for any request to increase the maximum allowed rent.
  19. Hearing examiners may review an owner’s books and records and conduct a building inspection and/or request that the City conduct a building inspection. Tenants may request that a hearing examiner conduct an inspection prior to a hearing.
  20. The City Council, City Manager, and City Attorney will not have any power to oversee, supervise, or approve the Board’s yearly budget.
  21. The Board will be allowed yearly assess and determine if there is a sufficient number of hearing examiners, housing counselors, and legal staff to effectively carry out the ordinance. This would increase the budget and cannot be overseen by City Council.
  22. The landlord’s failure to comply with any of the requirements in the ordinance can result in the tenants right to withhold rent. After the issue has been resolved by the owner, the Board will get to determine how much, if any of the withheld rent, will be owed to the owner.
  23. Any rental owner who demands, accepts, receives or retains any payment in excess of the amount allowed under the Ordinance shall be liable in a civil action to the tenant, including general and special damages and emotional distress. Additionally, the tenant will be entitled to costs and expenses.
  24. An order authorizing rent withholding shall survive the sale of the property and shall be binding upon the successors of the rental owner.

These are just the main highlights of the proposed ordinance. I strongly encourage you to read through the entire ordinance and familiarize yourself with it. If you would like a copy of the full ordinance, I would be happy to send you one. Just let me know if the comments below.


Stay posted for more updates on Rent Control in National City. If you haven’t checked out my earlier blog post on the proposed San Diego Rent Control efforts, click here to read more. I hope to see you at my upcoming lunch & learn on rent control and vacation rentals. This will be a great chance to get your questions answered and to hear more about this issue.

What Now?

If you a property owner and have concern over how this could affect your investments, my team and I would be happy to help. We have a wealth of experience in the multi-family industry and provide our clients with unmatched expertise. Give us a call today at (858) 356-5973 or click here to send us an email.


Curtis Gabhart and Gabhart Investments, Inc – 2018 All Rights Reserved
The information presented in this article represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Gabhart Investments, Inc. The material contained in articles that appear on gabhartinvestments.com is not intended to provide legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for the proper professional advice and/or commercial real estate due diligence. We urge you to consult a licensed real estate broker, attorney, tax professional or other appropriate professionals before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of an article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.
CoStar San Diego Multifamily Real Estate Market Update 2018

CoStar San Diego Multifamily Real Estate Market Update 2018

CoStar San Diego Multifamily Real Estate Market Update 2018

On August 14th, CoStar Senior Market Analyst, Josh Ohl, came into Gabhart Investments to give a presentation on the state of the San Diego Multifamily Real Estate market. In this fast-paced presentation, Josh offered an in-depth overview of the future outlook of San Diego multifamily real estate, an economic forecast, where we are currently at in the market cycle, and much more. This blog post will give you an overview of all the topics discussed as well as many important graphs and charts designed to give you a comprehensive look at the San Diego Multifamily market. Let’s take a deeper look.


Main Take-Aways

  • The rental market is stable with occupancies hovering right around 94-95%. Rent growth year over year is at 4.5%.
  • The lack of housing – we’re simply not building enough to accommodate our city’s growth. San Diego needs 175,000 new units within the decade and is only on pace to build roughly 65,000.
  • The pillars of the economy are stable, even after Qualcomm laid off 1,300 employees over the last couple of months
  • The potential tearing up of NAFTA and what trade tariffs could do with Mexico may lead to issues. We currently do about $6 billion of trading with Mexico every year out of San Diego. Over 100,000 jobs in the region are tied to trade. This may impact the metro to some extent. Tariffs could also impact developers costs with imported materials.
  • We just finished the first half of 2018 with the strongest venture capital investment. $450 million of venture capital investment went into life sciences.
  • The navy is going to be stationing another 15,000 sailors here by 2025 – where they are going to live is a question we will have to answer as we already in a profound housing crisis (remember, they’ll be bringing their families too)
  • The lack of a San Diego Convention Center expansion could drive away Comic Con which just renewed their lease through 2021. That’s about $150million of economic impact.
  • Expansion – we’re into year 9 of expansion but it’s only a matter of time before the bubble does in fact burst.

November Ballot

  • Proposition 10 – Californian’s will be deciding whether or not to repeal Costa-Hawkins and enact the Affordable Housing Act (which would give local jurisdictions the right to pass rent control measures). If passed, this could be a disaster for the California and San Diego Economy.
  • Locally, National City Residents will be among the first city in San Diego County to decide on rent control. The National City Rent Control and Community Stabilization Ordinance will be decided on. The impact could be felt by both landlords and tenants as landlords will lose property rights and tenants will face tougher conditions when finding housing. If you’d like an official copy of the ordinance, let us know in the comments below.
  • What’s going to happen with Qualcomm Stadium? Are we going to put a San Diego State University expansion campus there or Soccer City? Or will we just be looking at the same old obsolete eyesore for years to come?
    • Likely it’ll be the last. Voters may not have time to be familiar on these very last-minute ballot efforts and spending tax dollars on a development isn’t always popular.

San Diego Apartment Fundamentals

apartment supply demand and vacancy in San Diego

  • It generally doesn’t matter what is built, there’s typically going to be a demand to fill those units.
  • Vacancies are flatlined at a steady 4%.
  • One trend we’re starting in San Diego is that occupancy is hovering right around 94-95%.
  • Lower vacancies are compelling people to stay in their apartments longer. The average resident stays for about 2 years.
  • Lower vacancies are also good for landlords. Renewal increases are strong at about 4-5% a year and when the tenant moves out, rents generally can be increased by about 10-15%. This is great, however, rent control may jeopardize many of these opportunities (more on this later).

San Diego Construction

San Diego Construction 2018

  • These numbers only reflect buildings that are actually being built. You may notice other sources indicate higher levels, however, those sources may factor in buildings that simply get a permit but never actually break ground.
  • Construction is picking up but it’s nowhere near enough to meet the growing demand.
  • Cost of lumber has gone up 20% since 2017 – this could mean higher construction costs.
  • Proposed tariffs could have an impact on developer’s proformas and smaller developers may feel the increases significantly.

Where They’re Building in San Diego

San Diego Heat Map Construction

  • About 25% of downtown’s inventory is currently under construction.
  • In Carmel Valley/Del Mar with One Paseo, about 10-12% of the current inventory is under construction.
  • Pockets of Mission Valley are seeing some construction with areas zoned for higher density residential.

 

San Diego Construction Cycle
San Diego Construction Cycle

  • One of the biggest trends that we have observed during the last cycle compared to this cycle is the change in floorplans.
  • San Diego is one of the largest metros in the US where floor plans have shrunk.
  • We’re building a lot more studios and one bedroom apartments. This is because developers can build and charge more for these units in areas like Little Italy, East Village, etc…
  • This could also mean rent per square foot is increasing and people are waiting longer to get married/start families so there’s less demand for larger spaces.

San Diego Rent Growth

San Diego Rent Growth

  • San Diego ended the second quarter of 2018 with year over year rent growth of 4.5%. Among major metros in the US, San Diego is in the top 10.
  • We’re into year 9 of rent expansion
  • The average rent in San Diego is approximately $1800.
  • CoStar anticipates positive rent growth over next few years.
  • This could be drastically different this time next year if Proposition 10 is passed on the November ballot. This would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act and allow for cities to pass their own rent control ordinances. Don’t believe it’ll happen? In November, National City will be the first city in San Diego County to decide on rent control. This has the potential to harm landlords and renters.

San Diego Rent Control Lunch & Learn

San Diego Rent Control Class Gabhart Investments

I’ll be hosting an informative lunch and learn on Tuesday, September 18th, where you can learn more about Proposition 10 and the impact rent control may have on San Diego. This will have a strong emphasis on the san diego multifamily market, however, all property types will be discussed. I strongly encourage you to attend this informative event. Free lunch is provided to those who RSVP.

Sign Up Here

San Diego Annual Rent Growth by Submarket

  • Rent growth is the strongest in Point Loma at 10%.
  • Areas like East County, UTC and Downtown are seeing high rent growth.
  • The coastal markets are reaping the benefits of the increased demand during the summer months.
  • The San Diego rental market is seeing unprecedented rent growth and health.

san diego rent growth vs income growth

  • Incomes are not growing as fast as rents are growing, this is leading many San Diegan’s to downsize or share units.
  • This trend has continued for the past 7-8 years and probably will for many years to come.
  • Median renters household income is about $48,000
    • 42% of income is going towards rents
    • Downtown renters are paying 50% or more in some cases
  • Historically as rents continue to grow, people will look towards home ownership.
  • People are staying in their starter homes for about 9-10 years (up from the US average of 5-6 years)

San Diego Housing Crisis

San Diego Housing Growth

San Diego Single Family Housing Growth

  • Historically San Diego has been building more single-family residences (SFR) than multifamily units, however, these trends are starting to change. We’re actually building more apartments now.
    • this could be due to a lack of land or simply demand changes.
  • The San Diego Housing Commision estimates in the next decade based on population growth, we need about 175,000 additional units of supply.
    • This equates to roughly 17,000 units each year.
    • San Diego is FAR behind these numbers and is experiencing a housing crisis.
    • Roughly 3,000-3,500 multifamily units are being added each year.
    • Single-family permits are only averaging about 2,000 a year.
    • This places us about 12,000 or so units behind each year.

San Diego Capital Markets

san diego real estate sales volume

  • The San Diego multifamily market is having a really strong run as of late. Peak sales volume in 2017 was led by areas like Mission Valley which had $900 million in total sales volume. This is attributed to large deals like Pacific Ridge.

San Diego Sales Volume and Pricing

  • Last year we hit peak price at $270k a door and this year in the 1st half of 2018 we’re down to $255k. This isn’t a major cause for concern but should be something to watch for.
  • Newer construction on average is ranging between $400,000-450,000 a door with exceptions like The Dylan in Point Loma where prices were at about $500,000 a door.

san diego real estate quarterly sales volume

  • The total number of transaction is down 30% in the first half of 2018 compared to the first half of 2017
    • Fewer people chasing deals and banks looking at higher LTVs up to 50%
    • Institutional investors may be in hold periods
  • In the first half of 2018, we’ve only had 2 deals go over $100 million.

san diego cap rates by property type

  • Industrial properties are leading the way with the highest cap rates, followed by office, retail, and multifamily.
  • Along the coast, we’re seeing deals close at insanely low cap rates of 1.5-2.5%.
  • Many of the 5-5.5% cap rates in areas like National City, Chula Vista, La Mesa, North County, etc… are no longer around.
  • CoStar does not anticipate much cap rate expansion – maybe .3%
  • Our two favorite property types are multifamily and industrial. An ideal strategy may be for someone to move out of a lower cap rate multi-family property that could possibly fall under rent control in the future and move to a higher cap rate industrial building.

San Diego Demographics

San Diego Population Growth

  • People with graduate degrees are coming to San Diego. Our tech and life sciences industries have driven significant growth.
  • Those with a high school education are moving out due to a lack of wages that can meet the increased cost of living in San Diego.
  • Population growth has fallen below the national scale. This is due to San Diego’s transient town mentality where residents do not typically stay for more than a few years. The transient mentality can be attributed to several factors including the higher cost of living, decreasing housing stock, environmental factors, etc…
  • International migration has been the driver of our population growth. This can be attributed to factors like our growing life sciences and tech industries among other things.

San Diego Migration Statistics

  • Many San Diegan’s are beginning to migrate to more affordable markets like Phoenix, Texas, and the Inland Empire. From 2012-2016, 42,000 people migrated to the Inland Empire alone. If this trend continues, San Diego may lose out on a lot of talented workers.
  • Lack of job growth is leading some to pursue jobs in more thriving locations like the Bay Area.

San Diego delayed life changes demographics

  • Increasingly San Diegan’s are waiting longer to get married. From 2000-2015 the average age to get married went up by approximately 5 years.
  • This means the demand for more smaller units such as studios and one bedroom have increased and the demand for single-family homes has declined.

San Diego income growth

  • San Diegan’s income growth is lagging far behind the increased cost of living. We’ve only seen about 2-3% increases this cycle. If this trend continues, many working-class San Diegan’s could face financial hardships as they try to afford the increased cost of living.

San Diego Employment

San Diego employment

  • San Diego is currently above the national average for employment.
  • We hire about 20,000 workers year over year in San Diego.

Biggest Impact – Qualcomm

  • In April, Qualcomm laid off 1,300 employees. They gave back approximately 300,000 sq ft of office space.
  • The impact on the San Diego metro area is estimated at $5 billion. This accounts for 4% of the San Diego GDP.
  • For every job Qualcomm creates, another 2.5 jobs are added to the region on average.

Downtown San Diego Submarket

Downtown San Diego Submarket

  • 25% of downtown’s market is under construction.
  • No new supply in 2016 allowed for the increase in demand on newer constructions.
  • Downtown San Diego is one of the only places where vacancies are going up. This has to do with how
    many units are being built there compared to demand.
  • 60% of the units coming online this year in San Diego will be in Downtown.

Downtown San Diego Pipeline

Downtown San Diego Pipeline

  • The downtown market lacks a strong live, work, play environment. The lack of a Chargers stadium really hurt the area. Most buildings only consist of ground floor retail. There are very few places in San Diego where you can walk out of your 5-star class-A building and walk into a large homeless population (East Village is one of those places)
  • It remains to be seen how much demand will be driven to these units in the coming years.
  • As you can see, there is plenty of proposed buildings that may come online in the next decade. It will be interesting to see how this develops.

San Diego Trolley Expansion

San Diego trolley

  • San Diego is banking on the fact that people will start using the trolley with the expansion into the UTC area. There are approximately 112,000 riders a day but that number is only a small dent in the overall commuting population.
  • We are a largely suburban office campus market. People like their cars and there are very few places to get to without a car in San Diego.
  • It will be interesting to see what the trolley expansion will have on areas like Downtown San Diego.
  • The UTC stop has 2 million sq ft of office space within half a mile of it. This is great, however, the question becomes, “who’s going to want to walk half a mile in a suit in 90-degree heat”? Or what about those who simply have driven their whole life and don’t see the point in taking the trolley?
  • The trolley will be vital to continued development growth, but it remains to be seen if San Diegan’s will ever adopt it in large numbers.

** All graphics used in this article were provided by Josh Ohl, a Senior Analyst at CoStar. CoStar Group is the leading provider of commercial real estate information, analytics, and online marketplaces. They have been a tremendous tool for myself and countless other real estate professionals. Please visit their website and get in touch with your local representative today. **


Curtis Gabhart and Gabhart Investments, Inc – 2018 All Rights Reserved
The material contained in articles that appear on gabhartinvestments.com is not intended to provide legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for the proper professional advice and/or commercial real estate due diligence. We urge you to consult a licensed real estate broker, attorney, tax professional or other appropriate professionals before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of an article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.

 

San Diego Rent Control

San Diego Rent Control

Quick Summary

  • Californian’s will get to decide in the November ballots the fate of the Proposition 10,  the so-called “Affordable Housing Act (AHA), which would allow for cities to adopt rent control.  The AHA seeks to revoke the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act, which prohibits rent control on buildings built after February 1995.
  • Some San Diegan’s believe this would provide an answer to our housing crisis, however, many professionals and economists disagree. This initiative is bad for homeowners and renters and will make California’s housing crisis worse.
  • It is estimated that if Proposition 10 is passed, property values will fall 20-25% across the state of California.
  • Prop 10 is flawed and doesn’t create one unit of housing, it discourages new housing.
  • Experts believe rent control would be detrimental to the San Diego economy and would discourage new housing development, further exacerbating the housing crisis.
  • Experts also argue that rent control would eliminate many incentives to own rental properties. This could cause harm to both owners and tenants.
  • Rent control has already been adopted in several cities around the United States, and the results have proved to be harmful to the overall economy by shrinking supply of affordable housing and driving up rental market prices.
  • National City is the first city in San Diego County to try and pass a rent control ordinance (Proposition W). If passed, this could be a watershed moment for other cities in the county to pass such ordinances, further inhibiting our housing supply and placing both renters and owners at greater risk.

Continue reading below to learn more about rent control, Costa Hawkins, Prop W and the impact they would have on the San Diego economy.

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San Diego Rent Control

San Diego is facing a profound housing crisis. Rents keep climbing and supply keeps falling desperately behind demand. According to the San Diego Union Tribune, in March of 2018, the average rent in San Diego County hit an astonishing record of $1,887.

San Diego now ranks as the ninth most expensive market in the United States. Many San Diegan’s are finding it increasingly hard to afford rent and are turning to the government for answers. Their solution? Adopt the Proposition 10 (Affordable Housing Act) and repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act which would allow cities like San Diego to decide on their own rent control measures. The initiative received more than 650,000 signatures and will be placed on the November 6th ballot, giving Californian’s the option to decide on this issue.

Many economists and experts agree that rent control offers no benefits for all parties involved and would be disastrous for our local economy. How would rent control affect San Diego? Let’s take a closer look at the various players in this debate.

What is Costa-Hawkins?

The Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act is a California state law that was adopted to counter vacancy control ordinances and spur new construction of single-family homes.

It limits how cities set rent control in two ways

  1. It prohibits cities from putting a rent cap on single-family homes or apartment buildings built after February 1995.
  2. It gives landlords the right to raise rent prices to market value when a tenant moves out, otherwise known as a vacancy control.

Costa-Hawkins does NOT outlaw rent control. Cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have been able to adopt some forms of rent control but within the state law.

Source: Union Tribune 

What Is Proposition 10 (Affordable Housing Act)?

The affordable housing act has three main objectives

  1. It aims to restore California’s cities and counties to develop and implement local policies that ensure renters can find and afford decent housing in their areas.
  2. Improve the quality of life for millions of California renters and reduce the number of people who face critical housing challenges and homelessness.
  3. Repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act

Supporters of this bill hope that if passed, each California city would begin to pass their own rent control ordinances. In turn, they believe rents will go down, and that many Californian’s will be able to find affordable housing. They believe that increased rents are a result of landlords fueled by monetary greed.  This act would allow cities to prevent landlords from increasing rents once a tenant leaves (among other things). Curious what those other things are? We’ll break down what that could look like later in this article with National City.

Source: Affordable Housing Act Website 

While it is no question that rents are sky-rocketing and that a solution needs to be reached – allowing cities to pass rent control ordinances is not the answer. In fact, I would argue rent control would just exacerbate the problem.

 

Why Proposition 10 Won’t Work

A recent study by the Legislative Analysts Office (LAO) looked at Proposition 10 and said it would lower ALL property values so much so that the state stands to lose $10’s of millions of dollars over the next few years as a result of lower property taxes.

Repealing Costa-Hawkins would lead to shortages in both the quantity and quality of housing. Profits are what incentivize landlords to maintain a building in good shape. If rents are capped at a certain limit, what is the incentive for landlords to maintain the building?  Buildings would become neglected and long-term improvements wouldn’t be invested in. This can create unsafe living conditions for tenants.

Rent control would limit property owner’s potential cash flow to dangerous levels. When you think about things like increased expenses and rising interest rates, this could put owners at risk. If the owner can’t make their mortgage payment because rents have been caped, they risk losing their property. This could create a domino effect amongst many property owners. Tenants might also have to look for a new place to live.

There are already many risks associated with owning a multi-family building, so if you factor in rent control, what is the incentive to buy a place? Owners might opt to convert their building into condos if they do not see enough cash flow to turn a profit. This would take away even more rentals from the San Diego market.

In 2016, the Union Tribune asked 14 experts whether they believed rent control would benefit the San Diego economy, all 14 experts answered, “No”. They cited everything from shrinking the supply, decreasing affordability long-term, to driving tenants out to repurpose buildings.

History has shown us that rent control doesn’t work. Look at New York City in the 1970s and 80s. Landlords simply stopped maintaining the buildings, amenities were no longer looked after, living conditions became dangerous, and eventually, entire streets blocks were left vacant. New York’s neighborhoods fell into an economic recession and investment was at an all-time low. 

 

National City (Proposition W)

This issue is much closer to home than you may think. The National City Rent Control and Community Stability Ordinance (Proposition W) will be voted on November 6th. This ordinance will halt construction, harm the local economy, and do nothing to help with the housing crisis.

Here is a quick highlight of the ordinance’s pitfalls courtesy of ProtectOurHousing

  • Caps annual rent increases at an amount equivalent to the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but never more than 5%.
  • Rolls rent back to Spring 2018 for existing residents that were in their units at that time. This means if you didn’t increase your rents then, you’re locked into those rates.
  • Upon receipt of a petition by a tenant or rental owner, the rent may be adjusted upwards or downwards in accordance with the Measure.
  • Creates a five-member rent board. At least three members must be tenants in controlled units. There are no seats specifically for property owners. You could, in theory, end up with a 5-member tenant board.
  • Creates a per unit fee to support the Rent Board, starting at $120 per unit per year (most existing Rent Boards charge $350 per unit per year). That comes right off your bottom line, while they’re already caping your rents!
  • The City Council and City Manager shall have no authority to oversee, supervise, or approve the Rent Board’s budget.
  • Requires Rent Board approval for all evictions (little to no recourse should they deny it).
  • Property owners who fail to comply with provisions in the Rent Control Measure can be held liable for damages including emotional distress.
  • The Rent Control Board will make legal assistance available for tenants related to evictions, Board petitions, hearings, and appeals.
  • Enacts Just Cause Protections, limiting an owner’s right to require a tenant to vacate a unit. This makes the removal of problematic tenants very difficult, leaving good residents to suffer. 
  • Withdrawal of units from the market requires 120 days to 1-year notice and requires relocation assistance of $7,000 and $10,000 if they are elderly, disabled, or have minor children.
  •  If Costa-Hawkins isn’t repealed but Prop W passes, ALL rental units in National City must pay $80/per year/per unit for Just Cause and also will be subject to relocation fees.
  • Owners who move into their own units will also be required to pay relocation costs.
  • Duplexes and homes with “granny flat” rentals will be subject to rent control unless the owner lives in one of the units.
  • Prohibits Ratio Utility Billing Systems (RUBs), thereby hurting conversation efforts.
  • If you decide to renovate the property and put a bunch of money into it, that evicted tenant will have first right of refusal at the market rate which they rented it at before.

As you can see, this list is quite overwhelming. National City could very well set the tone for future rent control ordinances throughout San Diego County. It is imperative that this bill not pass in order to save future cities from this same disaster. There are approximately 70,000 residents in National City and 70% of the population rent. With 25,000 registered voters, it is important they are informed of the impact this legislation would have on them.

What A Failure to Kill Prop 10 and Prop W Means for San Diego

A failure to kill Proposition 10 and Proposition W  would create a cascading effect. As these fights continue to go on in cities throughout San Diego County, the costs for various associations and professionals to go out and amend these ordinances to find workable solutions would become astronomical. We would be stretching ourselves far too thin. We need to send a clear message by defeating Prop 10 and Prop W and protecting Costa Hawkins.

It’s important to remember that if Prop 10 passes, that does not mean rent control is enacted. It simply allows cities the right to pass ordinances similar to what is trying to be done in National City.

Repealing Costa Hawkins and or enacting rent control in National City will not fix California’s (and San Diego’s) housing crisis. 

The Impact on Development

What about developers and investors? Would the same incentives remain for them to continue to build new construction if they knew property values would be artificially capped?

A recent CoStar report discussed the impact that rent control could have on development.

“Many developers are concerned about the economic impact there will be on new development if it is subject to rent control… it would change the “whole economics” of how developers view potential development opportunities… It’s hard enough and costly enough for a developer to make a decision to build housing, and now they are put on notice that the housing may be subject to rent regulation… they may very well be unwilling to make those tough decisions of being invested in building a development”.

If developers are unwilling to build new units, which San Diego desperately needs, that is a losing scenario for all parties involved. This would place us further behind meeting the demand for housing. Alan Gin at the University of San Diego argues,

“the problem is the lack of construction of both single-family and multi-family residential units. Controlling rents would reduce the incentive to build more multi-family units”.

If developers see fewer incentives to build housing, they may turn to other development avenues like commercial, retail, office, etc…

The Building Industry Association recently commissioned a study that found that up to 40 percent of the cost of a new home is attributable to the 45 agencies that govern home building in California. This means that on a $5,000,000 project, $2,000,000 is spent paying these 45 agencies that govern homebuilding. Legislation like the California Enviornmental Quality Act (CEQA), while once good intentioned, has proven to be a major roadblock to countless developers.

Rent control not only discourages development, but it would contribute to less affordable housing developments being built. Austin Neudecker of Rev points out that rent control would increase the prices for those who cannot find a controlled unit. New York City and San Francisco are prime examples where soaring rental prices and rampant abuse of rent-controlled housing exists.

Another big concern with rent control is tenants deciding to stay for extended periods of time in their current unit or subleasing it out. This makes it harder for people who need affordable housing to get into units.

A 2017 Standford Study and this LAO report also concluded that rent control does more harm than good. I recommend giving these a read, they provide some valuable insight into what happened in San Francisco and their attempts at rent control.

 

Final Thoughts

Think about this for a moment. If produce is too expensive, should we limit how much the farmer makes? What about if Apple Computers are too expensive? Do we start paying people who make them less?

The same concept applies to landlords when being asked to accept rent control. Just because rents are going up, it doesn’t mean the responsibility falls on owners and developers.

Or how about this

Rent Control does nothing to empower homeownership. It doesn’t give us more supply and furthermore, it keeps you and your future heirs in a constant state of renting. Is that really what you want?

The failure of Government at all levels has created the housing crisis in California, not landlords. 

Between now and November, we need that message to get to the voters, and that will require support.

More permanent solutions lie within increasing zoning, reducing the time it takes to build, and expanding our public transit system and building communities around those transit centers.

Lowering parking space requirements could prove to help as we enter a future where vehicle ownership could decline. Developers fees should be prorated by size. As it currently stands, big and small units face the same fees, which gives developers no incentive to build smaller, less expensive units.

These are just jumping off points but could be great starts to solving what is arguably one of San Diego’s biggest dilemmas. I will be updating this post as more developments arise, so please stay posted.

Where you can get involved

National City Protect Our Housing

If you know people who have property, or better yet reside in National City, have them vote no on prop W!

More Information

San Diego Union Tribune “What’s the Deal With Rent Control” 

EconoMeter Critics Panel Report

Rent Control is No Answer to California Housing Crisis 

 

Written by Blake Imperl in collaboration with Curtis Gabhart

Curtis Gabhart and Gabhart Investments, Inc – 2018 All Rights Reserved
The material contained in articles that appear on gabhartinvestments.com is not intended to provide legal, tax or other professional advice or to substitute for the proper professional advice and/or commercial real estate due diligence. We urge you to consult a licensed real estate broker, attorney, tax professional or other appropriate professionals before taking any action in regard to matters discussed in any article or posting. The posting of an article and of any link back to the author and/or the author’s company does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation of the author’s products or services.